Adam Hibberd
Now the threat posed by Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) 2027 YR4 to Earth in December 2032 has been effectively ruled out altogether, an apathy concerning this object has descended on so many and this is, of itself, quite alarming. Let me explain to you TWO reasons now why such complacency is entirely misplaced.
- Firstly, it is true that the probability of 2024 YR4 striking the Earth in 2032 is now negligible, but this has been accompanied by an INCREASE in its probability of striking the Moon. This may seem harmless enough but on-the-contrary, if it DOES hit, then any astronauts on the Moon would have to take cover for several hours to avoid being struck by the ejecta thrown up in the impact. Furthermore landers on the Moon or orbiting space stations would be imperiled by the sheer scale of debris flung out into cis-lunar space.
- Secondly, let us suppose that 2024 YR4 does in fact miss both the Earth and the Moon in 2032, if this happens, the time-period of 2024 YR4's orbit is such that it will return to the Earth/Moon system every 4 years and menace humanity on an on-going basis, and indefinitely into the future for that matter.
In both of the two cases above, a deflection mission to this object would still be well worth-the-while, in fact I would argue a MUST.
Moreover, because we possibly won't know whether 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon in 2032 until further observations are made on its return in 2028, we should be planning a deflection mission immediately.
Anyway what we certainly should NOT be doing is wiping our collective brows now that we have avoided a close shave and we definitely should NOT be kicking the matter into the long grass.
This object still needs our URGENT attention and further IMMEDIATE action.